With the men’s individual Olympic triathlon races set to take to the streets of Paris on 30 July, we take a closer look at each of the disciplines and which of the 55 men lining up on the Seine on 31 July has the potential to make an impact and where.

Will the current string out the swim or make the fastest more conservative? Can the strongest swim-bikers find an opening and carve out a breakaway? Will the strongest runners be close enough to the front to use their weapons to full effect?

Swim masters set the tone

Without perennial front-pack swimmers Vincent Luis and Mark Devay in the starting 55, there are at least half a dozen contenders to be leading out of the water. Whether the Seine river conditions will suit a broad physique like Matthew Hauser or slighter figures like South African torpedo Henri Schoeman or Brazil’s Miguel Hidalgo remains to be seen.

Expect Kenji Nener (JPN) to feature near the front along with New Zealand’s Dylan McCullough, Italian youngster Alessio Crociani, Hungary’s Csongor Lehmann, Jamie Riddle of South Africa and any - or all three - of the French men.

A rapid T1 – the first transition where swim goggles and hat must go into the equipment box then it’s a flying bike mount out and onto the 40km course - can have a huge impact. The 36 steps up off the pontoon to the waiting bikes racked along the bridge may also play their part. The ability to get away cleanly or lose the back wheel of the pack ahead - and the exertion required to mitigate either of those situations – could make or break a race.

Germany’s Jonas Schomburg has proven himself a master in that regard, current Series leader Luke Willian (AUS) and Alberto Gonzalez Garcia (ESP) doing likewise in both WTCS Cagliari and WTCS Hamburg.

Breakaway and stay-away?

Schomburg doesn’t like to hang around on the bike either. The bigger the group, the harder it can be to get organised, whether trying to stay away or chase down. In Tokyo, Luxembourg’s Stefan Zachaus made a bold move on lap 5 that earned a 10-second lead at one point, but ultimately came to nothing. Then Andreas Salvisberg rolled the dice on the last lap and opened up a 14-second lead onto the run. Again, that advantage was soon hoovered up, his legs paying the price for that ambitious attack.

For the likes of Kristian Blummenfelt and Marten Van Riel, their bike power might be required to hurt the faster runners. That would include Morgan Pearson of the USA and Brazil’s Manoel Messias, but New Zealand’s Hayden Wilde could also potentially be needing to close a gap and is one of the most talented riders out there, capable of hauling a chase pack with him.

Positioning over the closing stages of the final bike lap is the next key moment. The fatigue of an intense 40km ride at precisely the moment where maximum concentration is required can cause issues, especially in a large group. We saw the consequences with a big crash at WTCS Yokohama that took out several athletes.

Run to the sun

If a large group has formed, being near the front at the dismount can give a clear path ahead, but for those numbered at the back of transition, it could also mean more traffic to pick through once the bike is racked.

Either way, the helmet again must go into the equipment box, the running shoes hauled on, and then the 10km run is on. This is where things again can get both highly tactical and deeply unpredictable.

In Tokyo, it was Alex Yee very quickly pushing the pace along with Coninx, both looking to kill off the challenges of as many challengers as possible, as early as possible. The lead group was down to 9 athletes as Yee took to the front at the halfway point then the surges boiled it down to Yee, Wilde and Blummenfelt at the bell. The rest is history.

But such is Olympic triathlon that the potential scenarios and contenders over the closing stages are numerous. Vasco Vilaca has no weak discipline, Jelle Geens, Hidalgo, Messias, Pearson, Tim Hellwig have the potential to podium.

Add in the possibility of a sprint finish and the form book could either be a useful indicator or thrown out of the window completely. The likes of Coninx, Hellwig and Pierre Le Corre have been involved in some classics, Vilaca likewise, Yee out-sprinted Wilde by a second in Cagliari.

Hold on to your hats, the Paris 2024 Olympic Triathlon is almost here. Wednesday 10.45am local time.