World Triathlon

On 31 July, 55 women will line up for the individual Olympic triathlon and a shot at writing their name in the history of their sport for eternity. But where can the advantages be gained throughout the near two-hours of racing and who is going to best placed to exploit them?

Much has been made of the potential for the Seine current to slow the swim. But the opening 440m to the first turn buoy, while longer than regular Olympic-distance courses on the circuit, will be with the flow and could therefore be as fast as anything we have seen. There will be several big names looking to get clear over the swim-bike, others doing everything in their power to minimise any gap a breakaway group might carve out.

Then there is the closing stages of the 10km run, where anything from the cobbled surface to the roar of a home crowd could be decisive.

Potter takes aim

As the number one athlete in the Olympic Ranking, Beth Potter will have the honour of choosing her pontoon start number and position, but will want to take into account not just the straightest line to the buoy but also the strongest current.

Regularly found carving through clear water at the top level are the likes of Vittoria Lopes (BRA), Maya Kingma (NED), Kate Waugh (GBR) and Bianca Seregni (ITA). But defending champion Flora Duffy and home favourite Cassandre Beaugrand could also spearhead the opening discipline and blow their chances of success wide open from the get go.

At the Test Event, the fastest athletes started on the centre-right of the pontoon, and sighting was made difficult into the sun on the return towards the pontoon. Add in the changing light conditions as they passed under the bridge and there are plenty of challenges. Flora Duffy and Georgia Taylor-Brown were both missing from the Test Event, Potter, Tertsch and Knibb all exited together some 25 seconds behind Beaugrand.

The mission into transition

Flora Duffy also has a history of dialling in her transitions, keeping a cool head when it counts to switch from swim to bike. That will be crucial in Paris, where 36 steep stone steps need to be climbed before hitting the top of the bridge and the bike racks. Experience could play a major role here, though it is also something that another young French star, Emma Lombardi, often excels in. Potter and Tertsch were the fastest through T1 at the Test Event.

Where Taylor Knibb exits the water could also have a big impact on the second discipline, as the athletes mount their bikes and head out for the 40km ride. The harder she has to work to be among the leaders, the longer she may have to wait before feeling a breakaway is possible.

We have seen her ride solo, too, and there are few that can match her power, each dead turn a chance to drive out back to full tilt and potentially pull clear. We have also seen Duffy and Kingma form extremely efficient breakaways, Georgia Taylor-Brown too. It will be fascinating to see who – if anyone - is prepared to roll the dice and how early in a bid to nullify the run of a Beth Potter or Lisa Tertsch.

Time to surge

The second transition is another opportunity to make or break a race. Taylor Knibb’s T2 was a full 11 seconds slower than the quickest (Alberte Kjaer Pedersen), 10 seconds slower than Beaugrand’s. The effort expelled in making up those kind of margins before it is too late could also end a medal challenge.

So it is to those incredible runners that attentions will turn over the final 33-34 minutes of all in racing. The Test Event saw Beaugrand and Potter locked in battle before the Brit stole a march and the gold over the final lap. More recently, Beaugrand soared in Cagliari and Hamburg, Lisa Tertsch showing she has the kick to outpace Potter, both over the 5km in Germany and 10km in Cagliari.

Tertsch has an almighty sprint, too, Jeanne Lehair has shown she can mix it over the 10km and if someone like Sweden’s Tilda Mansson can be within touching distance of the leaders, there are few faster. 

The Women’s Individual Triathlon of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games: Wednesday 8am local time.
Check your local listings for how to watch live.